US Stocks: Q1 Earnings Preview
2025-04-09
■ Downward revisions to EPS estimates progress, with a projected year-on-year increase of 7.8%
■ Signs of a pause in stock price adjustments—will further EPS downgrades trigger renewed downward pressure?
This weekend marks the start of the Q1 earnings season for major US companies, beginning with financial giants. In Week 2 (14th-18th), US financial heavyweights, Taiwan’s major semiconductor foundry company, and a leading Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer are scheduled to report. Week 3 (21st-25th) will feature tech/semiconductor giants, aerospace/EV leaders, and Week 4 (April 28th-May 2nd) will see smartphone giants report. The first week of May (5th-9th) will include e-commerce and semiconductor leaders. Six of the "Magnificent Seven (M7)" tech giants will have reported by this point, marking the peak of earnings season. Later, Week 2 of May (12th-16th) will include retail giants and semiconductor firms, with the final M7 semiconductor company reporting on May 28th.
The S&P 500’s forward 12-month P/E ratio stood at 18.4x as of the 4th, down from 22.4x in February and below its post-2018 average (19.0x), suggesting easing valuation concerns. The M7’s forward P/E has dropped sharply to 22.5x from 33.6x in December 2023, nearing January 2023 levels (19.7x), indicating normalization of AI-related hype post-ChatGPT’s debut. While US officials’ tariff statements may continue to spook markets, there are emerging signs of stabilization in equity valuations.
Per LSEG I/B/E/S (as of the 4th), S&P 500 Q1 EPS is expected to grow 7.8% YoY, revised down from 12.2% in early January. However, 2025 full-year revisions remain modest (14.0%→10.4%), suggesting insufficient pricing of tariff impacts. Beyond individual earnings, management commentary on future business conditions will be critical. Any hints of uncertainty could trigger further market declines, warranting caution.
■ Signs of a pause in stock price adjustments—will further EPS downgrades trigger renewed downward pressure?
This weekend marks the start of the Q1 earnings season for major US companies, beginning with financial giants. In Week 2 (14th-18th), US financial heavyweights, Taiwan’s major semiconductor foundry company, and a leading Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer are scheduled to report. Week 3 (21st-25th) will feature tech/semiconductor giants, aerospace/EV leaders, and Week 4 (April 28th-May 2nd) will see smartphone giants report. The first week of May (5th-9th) will include e-commerce and semiconductor leaders. Six of the "Magnificent Seven (M7)" tech giants will have reported by this point, marking the peak of earnings season. Later, Week 2 of May (12th-16th) will include retail giants and semiconductor firms, with the final M7 semiconductor company reporting on May 28th.
The S&P 500’s forward 12-month P/E ratio stood at 18.4x as of the 4th, down from 22.4x in February and below its post-2018 average (19.0x), suggesting easing valuation concerns. The M7’s forward P/E has dropped sharply to 22.5x from 33.6x in December 2023, nearing January 2023 levels (19.7x), indicating normalization of AI-related hype post-ChatGPT’s debut. While US officials’ tariff statements may continue to spook markets, there are emerging signs of stabilization in equity valuations.
Per LSEG I/B/E/S (as of the 4th), S&P 500 Q1 EPS is expected to grow 7.8% YoY, revised down from 12.2% in early January. However, 2025 full-year revisions remain modest (14.0%→10.4%), suggesting insufficient pricing of tariff impacts. Beyond individual earnings, management commentary on future business conditions will be critical. Any hints of uncertainty could trigger further market declines, warranting caution.