US/European Economy
2023-02-22
■ The US economy continues to grow in personal consumption and production is sluggish
■ The European economy continues to expand and the labor market remains strong
In January, the consumer price index (CPI, up 6.4% year-over-year and 0.5% month-over-month) accelerated for the first time in three months due to the sharp rise in gasoline and gas prices. In addition, in addition to the core CPI of food and energy (up 5.6% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month), the growth rate also slowed down compared with the previous year, but the growth rate was the same as that of the previous month. The sustained high growth of housing costs, as the largest component, continues to lead to high inflation.
Retail sales in January (up 3.0% month-over-month) and core sales (excluding automobiles, catering, building materials and gasoline) (up 1.7% month-over-month) increased significantly. Both of these increases exceeded the decline in the past two months, indicating that the upward trend is being maintained. The sales of auto parts, furniture and electrical products decreased last month increased significantly.
Mining industry production in January (flat on a month-over-month basis) was basically the same as that of the previous month. Although utilities have increased, energy production has declined significantly. With the decrease of global demand for commodities, it is clear that even after the easing of supply restrictions, the production level will stagnate.
The real GDP growth rate of the euro area in the period of October to December last year was reported twice (0.1% month-over-month), although the growth rate slowed for two consecutive quarters, it still maintained a positive growth. There has been no change since the first quick report value, avoiding the serious energy crisis that people are worried about, and the economy is slowly expanding, although the scope is not large. At the same time, the number of people employed in the euro area in the quarter from October to December (up 0.4% year-over-year) was announced. Although the growth rate was slightly stronger than that of the previous quarter, it confirmed that the employment situation was still strong.
In December of last year, mining production in the euro area (down 1.1% month-over-month) fell after a sharp month-over-month growth. From the perspective of keynote, the production level continues to remain stable. In terms of commodities, capital goods and non-durable consumer goods continued to increase, while intermediate goods and durable consumer goods showed a downward trend, indicating that the demand for commodities was sluggish.
In December of last year, the surplus of operating items in the euro area (15.9 billion euros in black letters) showed a surplus for the second consecutive month, and the amount of surplus increased month-over-month. Contributing factors include the fall in natural gas prices, which led to the surplus of goods revenue and expenditure for two consecutive months, and the increase in the surplus of original income balance, including foreign bond interest and dividends, which led to this growth.