US/European economy
2022-11-29
American economy —— Increased sense of slowdown in projects other than personal consumption
European economy —— At present, the pace of enterprise activity contraction has eased
Durable goods orders in October (up 1.0% month on month) grew for the third consecutive month, while non defense capital goods orders excluding the aviation industry, as a leading indicator of capital investment, grew for the first time in two months (up 0.7% month on month). However, the latter has remained flat for most of the past three months. If the impact of rising prices is excluded, the growth rate will remain at a very low level. Although the rising cost of capital is a factor inhibiting capital investment, the high capacity utilization rate shows that the demand for capital investment has not declined.
In October, the sales of new houses (annual rate converted to 632000 households, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%) increased for the first time in two months, but the downward trend was not interrupted, and the sales inventory (August and September) was still at a high level. On the other hand, the sales price (median price, 493000 US dollars) hit a new record high. Even though the demand declined, the price continued to soar.
In October, the Chicago Federal Reserve's national activity index was (-0.05, down 0.22 points from the previous month), falling to a negative area for the first time in four months, indicating that growth slowed to below trend levels. This indicates that the growth has slowed to below trend level. In terms of details, except for consumption and housing, three of the four items are negative, indicating that the slowdown of items other than personal consumption is becoming increasingly strong.
In September, the euro area's ordinary book balance (8.1 billion euro deficit) was in deficit for the seventh consecutive month, but the deficit was the lowest in six months. The reduction of the commodity balance deficit and the increase of the main income balance, including interest and dividends on foreign financial assets, contribute to reducing the current account deficit.
In November, the euro area PMI started in manufacturing (47.3, up 0.9 points month on month) and services (48.6, flat). Both declines have stopped, but the situation is still below 50, indicating that activities are shrinking. Although the basic trend itself has not changed, it shows that the current pace of deceleration has eased.
The German Ifo business climate index in November (86.3, 1.8 points higher than last month) rose slightly for the first time in three months, but the decline has not broken. In detail, although the expected index is rising, the current index is declining. Although the economy continues to slow down, enterprises seem to be less vigilant about the future. The source said that it is expected that the future economic recession may not be as serious as previously thought.