US Economy: Personal Consumption Maintains Growth Trend

■ US retail sales surged in March, with core consumer data strengthening, indicating continued resilience in personal consumption and no immediate impact from rising energy prices.  

■ Although the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index turned negative, it remained above the recession threshold, indicating that the overall economy maintained a moderate expansion. 

 
 
Retail sales in March increased significantly (1.7% month-over-month). The surge in gas station sales, driven by rising prices, was the main driver. Additionally, sales at department stores and furniture and home-furnishing stores increased significantly, rebounding from the previous month's cold snap. Core sales (excluding automobiles, food service, building materials, and gasoline, up 0.7% month-over-month), a fundamental indicator of personal consumption in GDP statistics, also showed accelerated growth. The growth trend in personal consumption was maintained, and the impact of rising energy prices had not yet become apparent as of March. 

 
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (-0.20, down 0.23 points from the previous month) turned negative again in March after three months, indicating below-trend growth, mainly dragged down by deteriorating production and income. The three-month average (-0.03), which reflects the underlying trend, also turned negative, but it remains above the Chicago Fed’s standard for a recession (-0.70), indicating that the economy is still expanding moderately.