US Economy: Despite Seasonal Factors, Unemployment Remains Subdued

■ Leading indicators for existing home sales continue to rise, indicating a recovery in the US housing market, but high interest rates may be a constraint.  

■ Unemployment claims remain low, and the overall US employment situation remains robust. 
 
US Existing Home Sales (Annualized Rate), Existing Home Sales Contract Index. The existing home sales contract index in November last year (up 3.3% month-on-month) has risen for four consecutive months, reaching its highest level since February 2023. This index is a leading indicator for existing home sales, and existing home transactions account for more than 80% of US residential sales, indicating that the US existing home market is showing signs of recovery. However, the yield on US ultra-long-term Treasury bonds—the benchmark for 30-year mortgage rates, a major financing method—is showing a more pronounced upward trend, which is expected to become a constraint on residential sales in the future. 

 
Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 26 last year (199,000) have declined for three consecutive weeks. The four-week moving average (219,000), reflecting the trend, rose for the first time in two weeks, but remains at a low level since February last year. Furthermore, the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits for the week ending December 19 (1.866 million) declined for the first time in three weeks, and its four-week moving average (1.874 million) is also gradually declining from a level that had been consistently above 1.9 million since November. Although there is a seasonal phenomenon of increased temporary hiring and a decrease in the number of unemployed at the end of each year due to year-end sales, overall, the unemployment situation remains subdued.