US economy and European economy
2023-04-25
■ The US Economic Manufacturing Business Prosperity Index is mixed, but the trend is downward
■ The continuous recovery of the European economy centered around the service industry, with an expanded perspective on the need for caution in the future
The sales of second-hand houses in March (annualized 4.44 million units, a decrease of 2.4% month-on-month) decreased for the first time in two months. The sales inventory (valued at 2.6 months) remains low, indicating tight supply and demand, but the sales price (median price, $375700) continued to decline after reaching its peak in the middle of last year.
The manufacturing business confidence index of the New York Federal Reserve rose sharply in April (10.8, up 35.4 points from the previous month). It turned positive for the first time in five months, indicating that manufacturing activity is expanding. In contrast, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve (-31.3, down 8.1 points) fell to its lowest level since May 2020 immediately after the pandemic crisis. The two indicators show significant monthly fluctuations and a downward trend, making it difficult to judge the recovery of manufacturing activity solely based on the significant increase in the New York Fed's Manufacturing Business Climate Index.
The current income and expenditure for February (24.3 billion euros) were highlighted in black for the third consecutive month, the highest since September 2021. The fiscal revenue and expenditure surplus have increased significantly. Due to the decline in natural gas prices, the import of energy has decreased, making a significant contribution.
Germany's ZEW economic outlook index for April (4.1, down 8.9 points month-on-month) fell for the second consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since January when it became positive. The survey shows that the financial professionals surveyed have weakened their expectations for economic recovery in the next six months. On the other hand, the current situation index (-32.5, up 14.0 points from the same period last year) has significantly increased, indicating that the economy is currently recovering.
In April, the initial PMI of the manufacturing industry in the eurozone fell for the third consecutive month (45.5 points, 1.8 points lower than the previous month), reaching the lowest level since May 2020. In contrast, the service industry (56.6, up 1.6 points) rose for the fifth consecutive month, reaching its highest level since April 2022. Although the gap between the manufacturing and service industries has further widened, the results indicate that domestic demand is continuing to recover.
The manufacturing business confidence index of the New York Federal Reserve rose sharply in April (10.8, up 35.4 points from the previous month). It turned positive for the first time in five months, indicating that manufacturing activity is expanding. In contrast, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve (-31.3, down 8.1 points) fell to its lowest level since May 2020 immediately after the pandemic crisis. The two indicators show significant monthly fluctuations and a downward trend, making it difficult to judge the recovery of manufacturing activity solely based on the significant increase in the New York Fed's Manufacturing Business Climate Index.
The current income and expenditure for February (24.3 billion euros) were highlighted in black for the third consecutive month, the highest since September 2021. The fiscal revenue and expenditure surplus have increased significantly. Due to the decline in natural gas prices, the import of energy has decreased, making a significant contribution.
Germany's ZEW economic outlook index for April (4.1, down 8.9 points month-on-month) fell for the second consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since January when it became positive. The survey shows that the financial professionals surveyed have weakened their expectations for economic recovery in the next six months. On the other hand, the current situation index (-32.5, up 14.0 points from the same period last year) has significantly increased, indicating that the economy is currently recovering.
In April, the initial PMI of the manufacturing industry in the eurozone fell for the third consecutive month (45.5 points, 1.8 points lower than the previous month), reaching the lowest level since May 2020. In contrast, the service industry (56.6, up 1.6 points) rose for the fifth consecutive month, reaching its highest level since April 2022. Although the gap between the manufacturing and service industries has further widened, the results indicate that domestic demand is continuing to recover.