United States: No significant changes in financing needs and financing standards.

■ Financing demand continues to recover, and the tightening of US bank lending standards has eased slightly. 

■ Be wary of rising non-performing loans from non-bank institutions, leading to an economic slowdown, but not yet enough to cause unease in the financial system.  

    The Federal Reserve (FRB) released its latest Senior Lending Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) on January 4th. This survey, conducted quarterly by the FRB, interviews lending officers at US financial institutions to understand changes in financing standards and funding needs compared to three months prior. Respondents received questionnaires on December 10th and completed their responses by January 2nd. 
 
The DI (increase in demand - decrease in demand) for commercial and industrial loan financing to large and medium-sized enterprises (annual sales exceeding $50 million) was +16.1, further expanding from +11.5 in the previous October survey, indicating a continued upward trend in financing demand. Feedback from individual banks suggests that, in addition to equipment investment, companies' willingness to engage in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) has also increased. Meanwhile, the funding standard DI (tightening rate - easing rate) was +5.3, still in the tightening range, but down from +6.5 in the previous survey. Overall, the change was limited, although lending to small and medium-sized financial institutions and lending to SMEs tightened slightly. Financial institutions that responded to tightening standards cited increased uncertainty about the economic outlook and decreased risk tolerance; while those that responded to easing standards pointed to increased competition with other financial and non-bank institutions as the main reason. 

 
Regarding household funding demand DI, credit cards (+4.3 → -4.5) turned negative again, and auto loans (-19.2 → -22.9) saw a further widening of the negative range. Against the backdrop of a deteriorating employment and income environment, consumer willingness appears to have declined, and the momentum of demand expansion failed to continue. Regarding funding standard DI, the tightening of credit cards (+4.2 → 0) eased, while the easing of auto loans (-5.8 → -6.1) further strengthened. This aligns with the decline in new delinquency rates during the October-December quarter of last year, with both credit card (8.88% → 8.69%) and auto loan (7.79% → 7.70%) showing a decrease compared to the previous quarter. 

 
As of the 11th, outstanding loans from US commercial banks to non-bank institutions totaled $1.8 trillion, a significant increase from $1.1 trillion at the end of 2024, and their share of total loans and leases also rose from 9.2% to 13.8%. If the financial condition of non-bank institutions deteriorates, putting pressure on the balance sheets of US commercial banks, it could increase the risk of an economic slowdown, requiring vigilance. However, given the continued increase in loan loss reserves by financial institutions and the liquidity supply mechanism of the Federal Reserve (FRB), the likelihood of this developing into a systemic financial risk remains low at present.