United States: Long-term strikes increase economic risks
2023-10-17
■The number of days of labor losses has reached its highest level since August 2002, maintaining a high level.
■ Be vigilant about the impact of the continuation and expansion of labor disputes on the economic downturn and upward inflation.
The strikes and other labor disputes in the United States have had a significant impact on the economy. Some factories among the three giants of the American automotive industry entered a state of strike over time. On the 11th, union members from factories that produce major models such as pickup trucks began a strike. The UAW has previously announced that they would decide whether to expand the strike every Friday based on the progress of labor negotiations. However, on the 13th, they explained how the situation will determine whether to expand the strike without prior notice. It is said that the UAW has $825 million in strike funds, and according to public opinion surveys, the vast majority of people express support for the UAW, thus people are concerned about the long-term nature of the strike.
Not only UAW, but also the strike phenomenon has affected the American Actors Guild Television Broadcasting Artists Association (SAG-AFTRA), the screenwriters' union, medical staff, hotel employees, catering staff, and more. The US Department of Labor will convert lost labor time due to strikes and other reasons into days and publish them as days of labor loss (number of affected workers) × The number of days of work stoppage affects labor disputes involving more than 1000 workers. In August, the lost labor time was 4.15 million hours, reaching the level since August 2002 (4.186 million hours), and in September it remained at a high level of 3.648 million hours.
In the future, the expansion and continuation of labor disputes may lead to a stagnation of economic activity, posing greater downward pressure on real GDP. In addition, if UAW achieves sufficient results through strikes, the demand for wage increases caused by strikes may further expand, leading to a spiral of upward pressure on wages and prices. In the short term, if car production stagnates, a shortage of inventory of new and used cars may drive up consumer prices. In addition, as of October's employment survey week (8-14), the UAW strike trend is expanding and is expected to exert downward pressure on the number of non-farm workers in November. In order to better evaluate the prospects of the US economy, we need to continue to pay attention to the direction of labor disputes.
■ Be vigilant about the impact of the continuation and expansion of labor disputes on the economic downturn and upward inflation.
The strikes and other labor disputes in the United States have had a significant impact on the economy. Some factories among the three giants of the American automotive industry entered a state of strike over time. On the 11th, union members from factories that produce major models such as pickup trucks began a strike. The UAW has previously announced that they would decide whether to expand the strike every Friday based on the progress of labor negotiations. However, on the 13th, they explained how the situation will determine whether to expand the strike without prior notice. It is said that the UAW has $825 million in strike funds, and according to public opinion surveys, the vast majority of people express support for the UAW, thus people are concerned about the long-term nature of the strike.
Not only UAW, but also the strike phenomenon has affected the American Actors Guild Television Broadcasting Artists Association (SAG-AFTRA), the screenwriters' union, medical staff, hotel employees, catering staff, and more. The US Department of Labor will convert lost labor time due to strikes and other reasons into days and publish them as days of labor loss (number of affected workers) × The number of days of work stoppage affects labor disputes involving more than 1000 workers. In August, the lost labor time was 4.15 million hours, reaching the level since August 2002 (4.186 million hours), and in September it remained at a high level of 3.648 million hours.
In the future, the expansion and continuation of labor disputes may lead to a stagnation of economic activity, posing greater downward pressure on real GDP. In addition, if UAW achieves sufficient results through strikes, the demand for wage increases caused by strikes may further expand, leading to a spiral of upward pressure on wages and prices. In the short term, if car production stagnates, a shortage of inventory of new and used cars may drive up consumer prices. In addition, as of October's employment survey week (8-14), the UAW strike trend is expanding and is expected to exert downward pressure on the number of non-farm workers in November. In order to better evaluate the prospects of the US economy, we need to continue to pay attention to the direction of labor disputes.