U.S. Macroeconomics
2022-10-14
■Manufacturing slows the pace of activity expansion
■Non-manufacturing remains resilient
The ISM Manufacturing Business Confidence Index (50.9, -1.9 points from the previous month) fell to its lowest level since May 2020 in September. Disaggregated data showed that new orders and employment fell below 50, indicating a contraction. Non-manufacturing (56.7, -0.2 points) also fell for the first time in three months, but only slightly. Business activity and new orders remained high, and the employment rate rose for the third consecutive month, indicating that business activity remains resilient.
The Job Openings and Labor Transfers Survey (JOLTS) for August showed that the number of job openings (1,053,000, down 1,117,000 from the previous month) fell sharply from the previous month to the lowest level since June 2021. This indicates that the demand for jobs has decreased. However, this is still significantly higher than the number of departures (5.976 million) and the labor supply and demand situation remains tight.
Nonfarm payrolls (+263,000/month) continued to increase by more than 200,000 in September, while the unemployment rate (3.5%, down 0.2 percentage points/month) was well below the natural rate of 4.0%. Average hourly wages (+5.0% y/y, +0.3% m/m) remained on a monthly basis at the same pace of growth as in August. The labor market remained strong, with no significant change in the upward trend in employment growth and wages.