The US Dollar Index shows a triple top pattern.
2025-02-28
■ The US dollar index has completed the head and shoulders top pattern, and the downward trend is more obvious
■ Even if it falls further, as long as it stabilizes near the low point of December 6 last year, it is still possible to launch a counterattack
The top or bottom formed by market price fluctuations can usually be divided into several typical patterns according to their characteristics. One is the "three-statue top", the "head and shoulders top". Specifically, this pattern consists of three high points (peaks) and two low points (bottoms), among which the middle high point is the highest, presenting a symmetrical three-peak structure. In Japan, because its shape is similar to the Bodhisattva statues arranged on the left and right sides of Shakyamuni Buddha, it is called "three statues". "Head and shoulders top" usually appears in the high area. When the price falls below the trend line connecting the two low points (bottoms) - the "neckline", it is usually regarded as a signal of the transition from an upward to a downward trend.
The US dollar index (DXY), which is calculated by weighting multiple major currencies against the US dollar, began to fall after hitting a high (peak) of 108.71 on November 22 last year, and fell to a low (bottom) of 105.420 on December 6. Subsequently, on January 13, DXY rose again to 110.176, setting a new high (peak) since November 2022, but fell back to 106.969 (bottom) on January 27, and the decline was temporarily halted. Subsequently, the US dollar index rose for the third time and hit a rebound high (peak) of 109.881 on February 3, but then fell back again and broke the neckline connecting the two lows (bottoms) (approximately 107.550) on February 13, completing a head and shoulders top pattern.
In the future, if the US dollar index can stabilize near the low of 105.420 on December 6 last year, it may still try to counterattack. However, from the technical chart, the downward trend of DXY is already quite obvious. In the short term, the neckline around 107.550 will become a key resistance level. Whether it can break through this position will become an important basis for judging the trend of the US dollar and may further affect the trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen.
■ Even if it falls further, as long as it stabilizes near the low point of December 6 last year, it is still possible to launch a counterattack
The top or bottom formed by market price fluctuations can usually be divided into several typical patterns according to their characteristics. One is the "three-statue top", the "head and shoulders top". Specifically, this pattern consists of three high points (peaks) and two low points (bottoms), among which the middle high point is the highest, presenting a symmetrical three-peak structure. In Japan, because its shape is similar to the Bodhisattva statues arranged on the left and right sides of Shakyamuni Buddha, it is called "three statues". "Head and shoulders top" usually appears in the high area. When the price falls below the trend line connecting the two low points (bottoms) - the "neckline", it is usually regarded as a signal of the transition from an upward to a downward trend.
The US dollar index (DXY), which is calculated by weighting multiple major currencies against the US dollar, began to fall after hitting a high (peak) of 108.71 on November 22 last year, and fell to a low (bottom) of 105.420 on December 6. Subsequently, on January 13, DXY rose again to 110.176, setting a new high (peak) since November 2022, but fell back to 106.969 (bottom) on January 27, and the decline was temporarily halted. Subsequently, the US dollar index rose for the third time and hit a rebound high (peak) of 109.881 on February 3, but then fell back again and broke the neckline connecting the two lows (bottoms) (approximately 107.550) on February 13, completing a head and shoulders top pattern.
In the future, if the US dollar index can stabilize near the low of 105.420 on December 6 last year, it may still try to counterattack. However, from the technical chart, the downward trend of DXY is already quite obvious. In the short term, the neckline around 107.550 will become a key resistance level. Whether it can break through this position will become an important basis for judging the trend of the US dollar and may further affect the trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen.