The strength of the US dollar against the Japanese Yen
2023-07-13
■The US dollar has hit a one-month low against the Japanese yen, and Japanese yen buying has also been boosted by the strengthening of US dollar selling.
In Japan, according to the May labor statistics released on the 7th, actual wages have decreased year-on-year for the 14th consecutive month. On the other hand, the nominal wage shows that the per capita total cash wage has accelerated year-on-year growth, and the wage within the regulation is the same as the high growth in about 28 years. The view that the Bank of Japan has taken action on the revision of monetary easing has surfaced, believing that the yen group that sells lower interest rates and continues to hold higher currencies will be rolled back, which also drives yen buying. In the non-commercial sector measures of the currency futures market announced by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (as of the week of July 3), the yen rose more than 110000 against the U.S. dollar, the highest level in five and a half years. Given the rapid decline of the US dollar against the Japanese yen, it may have eliminated a portion of the short-term yen.
On the list, the USD/JPY low in March was 129 yen and 63 cents, while the June high was 145 yen and 07 cents. The increase in the USD/JPY range is 38.2%, returning to the 139 yen and 17 cents view. The US Consumer price index (CPI) released in June was slower than the market expected, so the depreciation of the US dollar and the appreciation of the yen, which realized the narrowing of the Japan-US interest rate gap, will continue. However, the 0.25% interest rate rise of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held on the 26th was considered to be conclusive. It is expected that the above level of the dollar against the yen (139 Yen 17 cents) and the low point of 138 yen 45 cents on June 1 will stop reversing. The Bank of Japan's financial policy decision meeting on the 28th is about to be held, and we hope to pay close attention to whether the benchmark and conversion line of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo of the Japanese technical analysis tool has been tightened down by about 142 yen.
■ As the FOMC and Bank of Japan's financial policy decision meeting approaches the end of the month, there are concerns that the US dollar/yen may have fallen back to around 142 yen.
In Japan, according to the May labor statistics released on the 7th, actual wages have decreased year-on-year for the 14th consecutive month. On the other hand, the nominal wage shows that the per capita total cash wage has accelerated year-on-year growth, and the wage within the regulation is the same as the high growth in about 28 years. The view that the Bank of Japan has taken action on the revision of monetary easing has surfaced, believing that the yen group that sells lower interest rates and continues to hold higher currencies will be rolled back, which also drives yen buying. In the non-commercial sector measures of the currency futures market announced by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (as of the week of July 3), the yen rose more than 110000 against the U.S. dollar, the highest level in five and a half years. Given the rapid decline of the US dollar against the Japanese yen, it may have eliminated a portion of the short-term yen.
On the list, the USD/JPY low in March was 129 yen and 63 cents, while the June high was 145 yen and 07 cents. The increase in the USD/JPY range is 38.2%, returning to the 139 yen and 17 cents view. The US Consumer price index (CPI) released in June was slower than the market expected, so the depreciation of the US dollar and the appreciation of the yen, which realized the narrowing of the Japan-US interest rate gap, will continue. However, the 0.25% interest rate rise of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held on the 26th was considered to be conclusive. It is expected that the above level of the dollar against the yen (139 Yen 17 cents) and the low point of 138 yen 45 cents on June 1 will stop reversing. The Bank of Japan's financial policy decision meeting on the 28th is about to be held, and we hope to pay close attention to whether the benchmark and conversion line of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo of the Japanese technical analysis tool has been tightened down by about 142 yen.