The strength of Oceanian currency
2023-05-31
■When the tone of the US dollar appreciation was judged to be a small pause, the Oceanian currency reversed at its feet to the appreciation of the Australian dollar against the US dollar, and the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar.
■In the short term, it is the tone of the depreciation of the Australian dollar against the US dollar and the appreciation of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar, but in the long run, it will also return to the appreciation of the Australian dollar and the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar.
The exchange rate in May sparked the development of exploring the bottom price of the US dollar. In fact, since the beginning of the year, the trend of the US dollar index stopping its decline near 100.00 points has continued, and the US dollar has fallen below its limit. On the other hand, in terms of technology, the conversion line of the monthly balance sheet is above 107.783 and the benchmark line is above 102.157, but they are still in a stable state, indicating a slight pause in the tone of the US dollar appreciation. In this situation, at the beginning of the year, the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar fell by about 4% against the US dollar, down about 4.5%.
From the perspective of the strength between the currencies of Oceania, the AUD NZD USD exchange rate shows that the tone of the depreciation of the giant dollar at the beginning of the year and the appreciation of the NZD USD continues, but the trend of exploring the lower range of the giant dollar at the foot of NZD 1.0557 USD is still ongoing. The main reason for the reversal to the backdrop of the appreciation of the Australian dollar and the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar may be the difference in tightening attitudes between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve bank of New Zealand (RBNZD). The RBA resumed interest rate hikes and raised the policy interest rate to 3.85% at its board meeting on the 2nd, with expectations that the inflation rate will return to the Bank of China target by mid-2025. The President of RBA Lowe stated that "more monetary tightening may be needed on a reasonable timeline", and in the short-term financial market, the final reaching point of policy interest rates (terminal exchange rate) will also reach 4.10%. In contrast, the RB New Zealand dollar raised its policy interest rate to 5.50% on the 24th by the Financial Policy Committee, but hinted at the end of the rate hike cycle and predicted a rate cut after its expiration in July or September 2024.
In the future, whether the appreciation of the Australian dollar and the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar can continue will be the basis for RBA's policy guidance. If the first half of the AUD closing at NZD 1.08 on the chart is in the lower range, the bottom feeling will increase. However, given the interest rate difference between the two countries, it will accept resistance from the milestone of NZD 1.10 USD rising in the Med. However, if we focus on the current accounts of the two countries, while the deficit of the New Zealand dollar continues to expand, Australia's fixed surplus plays an advantageous role in the Australian dollar. He believes that in the long term, it will reach the February high of $1.1085, returning to the appreciation of the Australian dollar and the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar. In addition, on June 6 in Australia, the New Zealand dollar announced its current account from January to March on June 14.
■In the short term, it is the tone of the depreciation of the Australian dollar against the US dollar and the appreciation of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar, but in the long run, it will also return to the appreciation of the Australian dollar and the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar.
The exchange rate in May sparked the development of exploring the bottom price of the US dollar. In fact, since the beginning of the year, the trend of the US dollar index stopping its decline near 100.00 points has continued, and the US dollar has fallen below its limit. On the other hand, in terms of technology, the conversion line of the monthly balance sheet is above 107.783 and the benchmark line is above 102.157, but they are still in a stable state, indicating a slight pause in the tone of the US dollar appreciation. In this situation, at the beginning of the year, the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar fell by about 4% against the US dollar, down about 4.5%.
From the perspective of the strength between the currencies of Oceania, the AUD NZD USD exchange rate shows that the tone of the depreciation of the giant dollar at the beginning of the year and the appreciation of the NZD USD continues, but the trend of exploring the lower range of the giant dollar at the foot of NZD 1.0557 USD is still ongoing. The main reason for the reversal to the backdrop of the appreciation of the Australian dollar and the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar may be the difference in tightening attitudes between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve bank of New Zealand (RBNZD). The RBA resumed interest rate hikes and raised the policy interest rate to 3.85% at its board meeting on the 2nd, with expectations that the inflation rate will return to the Bank of China target by mid-2025. The President of RBA Lowe stated that "more monetary tightening may be needed on a reasonable timeline", and in the short-term financial market, the final reaching point of policy interest rates (terminal exchange rate) will also reach 4.10%. In contrast, the RB New Zealand dollar raised its policy interest rate to 5.50% on the 24th by the Financial Policy Committee, but hinted at the end of the rate hike cycle and predicted a rate cut after its expiration in July or September 2024.
In the future, whether the appreciation of the Australian dollar and the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar can continue will be the basis for RBA's policy guidance. If the first half of the AUD closing at NZD 1.08 on the chart is in the lower range, the bottom feeling will increase. However, given the interest rate difference between the two countries, it will accept resistance from the milestone of NZD 1.10 USD rising in the Med. However, if we focus on the current accounts of the two countries, while the deficit of the New Zealand dollar continues to expand, Australia's fixed surplus plays an advantageous role in the Australian dollar. He believes that in the long term, it will reach the February high of $1.1085, returning to the appreciation of the Australian dollar and the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar. In addition, on June 6 in Australia, the New Zealand dollar announced its current account from January to March on June 14.