Reviewing the European and American economies
2023-12-04
■US Economy >> The US economy is experiencing a decline in second-hand residential sales, and investment facilities are affected by rising interest rates
■European Economy >> The pace of shrinking business activity and declining consumer confidence in the European economy is slowing down
In October, the sales of second-hand residential properties (converted at an annual rate of 3.79 million households, a decrease of 4.1% compared to the previous month) significantly decreased, reaching the lowest level since 2010. The rise in housing loan interest rates seems to be leading to weak sales. Due to a decrease in sales, the level of sales inventory (3.6 months) has also increased, approaching pre-pandemic levels.
Durable goods orders in October (a decrease of 5.4% compared to the previous month) saw a significant decline due to a significant increase in the previous month. In addition, orders for non-defense capital goods other than aircraft (down 0.1%) have decreased for two consecutive months. Overall, since the second half of last year, the growth momentum has significantly slowed down, and the impact of a sharp rise in interest rates is becoming apparent.
In October, the Chicago Federal Reserve's National Activity Index (CFNAI, -0.49) significantly decreased to its lowest level in 11 months. The 3-month moving average (-0.22) of the core also significantly decreased, turning negative for the first time in two months. The economy, which recovered to trend levels in September, came to a halt in October.
The Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (43.8, up 0.7 percentage points month-on-month) and the Service Purchasing Managers Index (48.2, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month) both rose in November. Although still below 50 indicates that activity is still shrinking, the overall rate of activity shrinkage has slowed down.
The Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (initial value, -16.9, up 0.9 percentage points month-on-month) rose for the fourth consecutive month in November. However, since March 2022, it has remained below the long-term average level (-11.6), indicating that although there is some inhibition on the deterioration of consumer psychology, the situation is still sluggish.
In November, the German IFO Enterprise Prosperity Index (87.3, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month) rose for three consecutive months. Although the level is still low, both the current situation index and the expected index have risen, indicating that companies have curbed the deterioration of their sense of prosperity. In terms of industries, although the improvement in the manufacturing, trade, retail, wholesale, and construction industries has been slow, the situation in the service industry is gradually improving.
■European Economy >> The pace of shrinking business activity and declining consumer confidence in the European economy is slowing down
In October, the sales of second-hand residential properties (converted at an annual rate of 3.79 million households, a decrease of 4.1% compared to the previous month) significantly decreased, reaching the lowest level since 2010. The rise in housing loan interest rates seems to be leading to weak sales. Due to a decrease in sales, the level of sales inventory (3.6 months) has also increased, approaching pre-pandemic levels.
Durable goods orders in October (a decrease of 5.4% compared to the previous month) saw a significant decline due to a significant increase in the previous month. In addition, orders for non-defense capital goods other than aircraft (down 0.1%) have decreased for two consecutive months. Overall, since the second half of last year, the growth momentum has significantly slowed down, and the impact of a sharp rise in interest rates is becoming apparent.
In October, the Chicago Federal Reserve's National Activity Index (CFNAI, -0.49) significantly decreased to its lowest level in 11 months. The 3-month moving average (-0.22) of the core also significantly decreased, turning negative for the first time in two months. The economy, which recovered to trend levels in September, came to a halt in October.
The Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (43.8, up 0.7 percentage points month-on-month) and the Service Purchasing Managers Index (48.2, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month) both rose in November. Although still below 50 indicates that activity is still shrinking, the overall rate of activity shrinkage has slowed down.
The Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (initial value, -16.9, up 0.9 percentage points month-on-month) rose for the fourth consecutive month in November. However, since March 2022, it has remained below the long-term average level (-11.6), indicating that although there is some inhibition on the deterioration of consumer psychology, the situation is still sluggish.
In November, the German IFO Enterprise Prosperity Index (87.3, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month) rose for three consecutive months. Although the level is still low, both the current situation index and the expected index have risen, indicating that companies have curbed the deterioration of their sense of prosperity. In terms of industries, although the improvement in the manufacturing, trade, retail, wholesale, and construction industries has been slow, the situation in the service industry is gradually improving.