Reviewing the European and American economies
2023-11-27
■ The slowing trend of inflation in the US economy continues, while personal consumption remains strong
■ The European economy and manufacturing production in Germany and other regions are declining
In the October Consumer Price Index (CPI), the core CPI excluding food and energy (up 4.0% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month) has slowed down in both year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates. Due to the continuous decline in commodity prices and the slowdown in the largest increase in housing costs, the month-on-month growth rate was 0.2%, the lowest level in three months. This indicates that the slowing trend of basic inflation is still ongoing.
Retail sales in October (down 0.1% month-on-month) have been declining for seven consecutive months. However, the basic data that makes up the statistics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), such as automobiles, takeout, building materials, and core sales excluding gasoline (up 0.2%), have increased for seven consecutive months. Due to a significant rebound in the previous month, the growth momentum has slowed down, but it has been confirmed that the expansion trend of personal consumption is still being maintained.
Industrial production in October (down 0.6% month-on-month) has been declining for four consecutive months. Due to the prolonged strike, there has been a significant reduction in cars, which has had a significant impact on them. In consumer goods, there has been a significant increase in household electronic devices, while appliances, furniture, and carpets have decreased due to the rebound from the significant increase in the previous month. In addition, business equipment has been declining for two consecutive months, and overall growth momentum has been constrained.
The real GDP growth rate of the Eurozone from July to September (preliminary value in the second quarter, down 0.1% month-on-month) is the same as the preliminary value. The growth momentum of the employment figures for the July-September quarter (a month-on-month increase of 0.3%), which was subsequently announced, accelerated from the April-June quarter and remained strong despite negative economic growth.
In September, industrial production in the Eurozone (down 1.1% month-on-month) significantly decreased, with production falling to the lowest level since June 2021. High-tech products and transportation vehicles (such as cars), as well as durable consumer goods such as furniture, have significantly decreased. At the national level, Germany's decline is particularly evident, while production levels in countries such as France and Italy continue to fluctuate in stable regions.
The current account balance of the Eurozone (a surplus of 31.2 billion euros) slightly increased in September. Compared to last month, the fiscal revenue and expenditure surplus have decreased, while the first income surplus from external debt such as interest and dividends has increased.
■ The European economy and manufacturing production in Germany and other regions are declining
In the October Consumer Price Index (CPI), the core CPI excluding food and energy (up 4.0% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month) has slowed down in both year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates. Due to the continuous decline in commodity prices and the slowdown in the largest increase in housing costs, the month-on-month growth rate was 0.2%, the lowest level in three months. This indicates that the slowing trend of basic inflation is still ongoing.
Retail sales in October (down 0.1% month-on-month) have been declining for seven consecutive months. However, the basic data that makes up the statistics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), such as automobiles, takeout, building materials, and core sales excluding gasoline (up 0.2%), have increased for seven consecutive months. Due to a significant rebound in the previous month, the growth momentum has slowed down, but it has been confirmed that the expansion trend of personal consumption is still being maintained.
Industrial production in October (down 0.6% month-on-month) has been declining for four consecutive months. Due to the prolonged strike, there has been a significant reduction in cars, which has had a significant impact on them. In consumer goods, there has been a significant increase in household electronic devices, while appliances, furniture, and carpets have decreased due to the rebound from the significant increase in the previous month. In addition, business equipment has been declining for two consecutive months, and overall growth momentum has been constrained.
The real GDP growth rate of the Eurozone from July to September (preliminary value in the second quarter, down 0.1% month-on-month) is the same as the preliminary value. The growth momentum of the employment figures for the July-September quarter (a month-on-month increase of 0.3%), which was subsequently announced, accelerated from the April-June quarter and remained strong despite negative economic growth.
In September, industrial production in the Eurozone (down 1.1% month-on-month) significantly decreased, with production falling to the lowest level since June 2021. High-tech products and transportation vehicles (such as cars), as well as durable consumer goods such as furniture, have significantly decreased. At the national level, Germany's decline is particularly evident, while production levels in countries such as France and Italy continue to fluctuate in stable regions.
The current account balance of the Eurozone (a surplus of 31.2 billion euros) slightly increased in September. Compared to last month, the fiscal revenue and expenditure surplus have decreased, while the first income surplus from external debt such as interest and dividends has increased.