Reviewing the European and American economies
2023-10-12
■The growth momentum of employment in the US economy has increased
■The European economy and labor market are still good, but household consumption is clearly sluggish
In September, the ISM Manufacturing Prosperity Index (49.0, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month) rose for three consecutive months, while the non-manufacturing Index (53.6, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month) decreased, reaching its lowest point in two months. In the manufacturing industry, new orders and production have respectively rebounded to the levels since last summer, and manufacturing activity is clearly bottoming out and rebounding. On the other hand, in the non-manufacturing sector, although business activities have increased, new orders have significantly decreased, and the speed of demand expansion has significantly slowed down.
In September's employment statistics, the number of non-agricultural sector employees (an increase of 336000 compared to the previous month) increased significantly, reaching the highest level in 8 months in a single month. In addition, the data for the past two months has also been revised up, with employment numbers increasing by over 200000 for three consecutive months. The employment growth in the service industry is mainly concentrated in the education, leisure, and catering industries. The unemployment rate (3.8%) remains unchanged from the previous month, and the growth rate of average hourly wages (a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%) has slightly slowed down, indicating a slow trend in wage upward pressure.
In the eurozone, the unemployment rate in August (6.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month) has dropped again since the previous month's increase and remains at the lowest level in history. The unemployment rates of core countries such as Germany and France have steadily declined, while those of other countries are still declining. Overall, the unemployment rate in the eurozone is showing a downward trend.
Euro3zone retail sales in August (a decrease of 1.2% from the previous month) significantly decreased to the lowest level in two years and four months. In addition to the decrease in food, beverages, tobacco, and automotive fuel, internet and communication sales have significantly decreased due to the rebound in promotional activities last month. From a national perspective, sales in core countries such as Germany and France have significantly declined, indicating a significant downturn in household consumption.
■The European economy and labor market are still good, but household consumption is clearly sluggish
In September, the ISM Manufacturing Prosperity Index (49.0, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month) rose for three consecutive months, while the non-manufacturing Index (53.6, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month) decreased, reaching its lowest point in two months. In the manufacturing industry, new orders and production have respectively rebounded to the levels since last summer, and manufacturing activity is clearly bottoming out and rebounding. On the other hand, in the non-manufacturing sector, although business activities have increased, new orders have significantly decreased, and the speed of demand expansion has significantly slowed down.
In September's employment statistics, the number of non-agricultural sector employees (an increase of 336000 compared to the previous month) increased significantly, reaching the highest level in 8 months in a single month. In addition, the data for the past two months has also been revised up, with employment numbers increasing by over 200000 for three consecutive months. The employment growth in the service industry is mainly concentrated in the education, leisure, and catering industries. The unemployment rate (3.8%) remains unchanged from the previous month, and the growth rate of average hourly wages (a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%) has slightly slowed down, indicating a slow trend in wage upward pressure.
In the eurozone, the unemployment rate in August (6.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month) has dropped again since the previous month's increase and remains at the lowest level in history. The unemployment rates of core countries such as Germany and France have steadily declined, while those of other countries are still declining. Overall, the unemployment rate in the eurozone is showing a downward trend.
Euro3zone retail sales in August (a decrease of 1.2% from the previous month) significantly decreased to the lowest level in two years and four months. In addition to the decrease in food, beverages, tobacco, and automotive fuel, internet and communication sales have significantly decreased due to the rebound in promotional activities last month. From a national perspective, sales in core countries such as Germany and France have significantly declined, indicating a significant downturn in household consumption.