Pay attention to the European and American economies
2023-11-14
■The US economy: Has raised concerns about inflation and consumer confidence has deteriorated.
■European Economy: Although the economic downturn in Europe continues, the outlook shows signs of recovery.
In September's trade statistics, both exports (an increase of 2.2% compared to the previous month) and imports (an increase of 2.7% compared to the previous month) increased significantly, and the trade balance (a deficit of $615.4 billion) widened for the first time in two months. The increase in imports from Japan and Vietnam has contributed to the expansion of the deficit.
In November, the University of Michigan consumer survey (preliminary data) showed a significant decrease in the consumer confidence index (60.4, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points from the previous month), reaching a low level in six months. The rise in market interest rates and unemployment rates indicates a deterioration in consumer attitudes. In addition, consumer expectations for future inflation have increased within one year (4.4%) and five years (3.2%), especially reaching their highest level since August 2006 within five years. In addition, the forecast shows that gasoline prices will rise, and concerns about inflation have once again strengthened.
German mining industry production (down 1.4% from the previous month) fell for the fourth consecutive month in September, reaching its lowest level since August 2020. The large-scale production reduction in major industries such as automobiles and electrical equipment has had a significant impact on this. In addition, the mining industry orders (an increase of 0.2% compared to the previous month) slightly increased, mainly due to the recovery caused by the significant decline in external demand in August, while domestic demand decreased significantly. In Germany, the recovery of domestic demand is slow, and manufacturing activity remains sluggish.
The Eurozone investor confidence index (-18.6, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous month) rose for three consecutive months in November. Both the current situation index and the expectation index have increased, with the expectation index rising for two consecutive months. Although the current situation index is still at a low level, signs of recovery can be seen on the economic cycle chart.
■European Economy: Although the economic downturn in Europe continues, the outlook shows signs of recovery.
In September's trade statistics, both exports (an increase of 2.2% compared to the previous month) and imports (an increase of 2.7% compared to the previous month) increased significantly, and the trade balance (a deficit of $615.4 billion) widened for the first time in two months. The increase in imports from Japan and Vietnam has contributed to the expansion of the deficit.
In November, the University of Michigan consumer survey (preliminary data) showed a significant decrease in the consumer confidence index (60.4, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points from the previous month), reaching a low level in six months. The rise in market interest rates and unemployment rates indicates a deterioration in consumer attitudes. In addition, consumer expectations for future inflation have increased within one year (4.4%) and five years (3.2%), especially reaching their highest level since August 2006 within five years. In addition, the forecast shows that gasoline prices will rise, and concerns about inflation have once again strengthened.
German mining industry production (down 1.4% from the previous month) fell for the fourth consecutive month in September, reaching its lowest level since August 2020. The large-scale production reduction in major industries such as automobiles and electrical equipment has had a significant impact on this. In addition, the mining industry orders (an increase of 0.2% compared to the previous month) slightly increased, mainly due to the recovery caused by the significant decline in external demand in August, while domestic demand decreased significantly. In Germany, the recovery of domestic demand is slow, and manufacturing activity remains sluggish.
The Eurozone investor confidence index (-18.6, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous month) rose for three consecutive months in November. Both the current situation index and the expectation index have increased, with the expectation index rising for two consecutive months. Although the current situation index is still at a low level, signs of recovery can be seen on the economic cycle chart.