Looking back at the US and European economies
2023-07-27
■The tone of personal consumption in the US economy continues to remain solid.
■ The improvement trend of commodity income and expenditure in the European economy continues.
Retail sales in June (an increase of 0.2% compared to the previous month) increased for the third consecutive month, but the growth trend slowed down, and after excluding the impact of price increases, the level was basically the same as last month. However, due to the decrease in catering, building materials, gasoline, and other factors, there is also a suppressed surface. In actual GDP, the core sales of automobiles, excluding food, building materials, and gasoline, which are used to calculate personal consumption (a year-on-year increase of 0.6%), have increased, showing an increase higher than the price increase. Although it is a mixture of strengths and weaknesses, the overall result of showing personal consumption confidence continues.
The mining industry production in June (down 0.5% from the previous month) decreased for the second consecutive month, the lowest level in six months. The equipment operating rate (78.9%) has dropped to its lowest level since October 2021, indicating that production activity is declining. As of last month, there was a significant reduction in the production of automobiles, as well as non-durable consumer goods such as food and clothing, which had experienced significant growth and reaction.
In May, the current account surplus of the eurozone (9.1 billion euros) was the sixth consecutive month of surplus, and the surplus amount also increased. The decrease in exports last month led to an increase in the surplus of goods and services revenue and expenditure. However, for the first time, the income and expenditure deficit has also widened, with a significant deficit in a single month since November 2008. In terms of financial revenue and expenditure. Although there have been no significant changes in the flow of securities investment, the inflow of direct investment funds has significantly decreased.
The Eurozone Consumer Trust Index (reported value, negative 15.1, up 1.0 points from the previous month) rose for the fourth consecutive month in July. Although still below the long-term average level, before Russia invaded Ukraine, it had rebounded to the level since February 2022, and consumer attitudes were slow but showing an improvement trend.
■ The improvement trend of commodity income and expenditure in the European economy continues.
Retail sales in June (an increase of 0.2% compared to the previous month) increased for the third consecutive month, but the growth trend slowed down, and after excluding the impact of price increases, the level was basically the same as last month. However, due to the decrease in catering, building materials, gasoline, and other factors, there is also a suppressed surface. In actual GDP, the core sales of automobiles, excluding food, building materials, and gasoline, which are used to calculate personal consumption (a year-on-year increase of 0.6%), have increased, showing an increase higher than the price increase. Although it is a mixture of strengths and weaknesses, the overall result of showing personal consumption confidence continues.
The mining industry production in June (down 0.5% from the previous month) decreased for the second consecutive month, the lowest level in six months. The equipment operating rate (78.9%) has dropped to its lowest level since October 2021, indicating that production activity is declining. As of last month, there was a significant reduction in the production of automobiles, as well as non-durable consumer goods such as food and clothing, which had experienced significant growth and reaction.
In May, the current account surplus of the eurozone (9.1 billion euros) was the sixth consecutive month of surplus, and the surplus amount also increased. The decrease in exports last month led to an increase in the surplus of goods and services revenue and expenditure. However, for the first time, the income and expenditure deficit has also widened, with a significant deficit in a single month since November 2008. In terms of financial revenue and expenditure. Although there have been no significant changes in the flow of securities investment, the inflow of direct investment funds has significantly decreased.
The Eurozone Consumer Trust Index (reported value, negative 15.1, up 1.0 points from the previous month) rose for the fourth consecutive month in July. Although still below the long-term average level, before Russia invaded Ukraine, it had rebounded to the level since February 2022, and consumer attitudes were slow but showing an improvement trend.