Government bond market
2022-12-05
■【United States bond】Development of FOMC
■【Euro zone bond】Keep the time zone with a large variation
U.S. Treasuries in November were repulsed. The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held a policy to examine the pace of decline in interest rates in the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The yield of U.S. Treasuries for 10 years increased to a 3.62 percent level since the beginning of October. In December, the FOMC held on the 13th and 14th is expected to see developments in the future interest rate path and policy interest rates. An upward revision of the policy interest rate outlook for participants in the "economic outlook summary (SEP)" is suggested, and the increase in the interest rate futures market is expected to result in an increase of 5.0 percent. In the market, the rate cut since the second half of next year is also being adopted, and if the difference with the prospect of the FOMC participant is corrected, it will act as the upward boosting force of the U.S. bond yield.
The German bond market price continued to increase in November. In the beginning, the yield of the German government bonds rose, but after the middle of the period, the speculation of slowing the U.S. interest rate slowed by the U.S. price index led to the decline in interest rates, which spread to the euro zone JGBs market. In the euro zone, the yield of government bonds for 10-year bonds had a low level since the fourth of October. The yield curve is flat, for example, the reverse yield appears in the yield of the two-year bond and the 10-year bond. However, concerns about the recession in the next year were relaxed in response to the index of economic activity in the region. If the underlying inflation pressure, such as accelerating wage wages, is considered to be a modest inflationary pressure, it seems that there will be room for a rise in the yield of 10-year-on-year JGBs to the upper half of the second half of the year due to the anticipation of accelerating interest rates in the ECB. Strong material intercourse with the end of the year, and the time zone of the fluctuation width will continue.