Global: Price trends may influence election results.
2024-06-06
■ Since June, advanced countries have held political elections one after another, and the possibility of a regime transition between the UK and the US has also increased.
■ In the United States and the United Kingdom, high inflation has increased the index of suffering, and economic growth poses a significant challenge to the ruling party.
2024 is a pivotal year as many significant countries are preparing for national elections. Notably, voting has already taken place in Taiwan (presidential election, January 13th), Finland (presidential election, January 28th first round voting, February 11th runoff), Russia (presidential election, March 15-17), South Korea (parliamentary election, April 10th), Mexico (presidential election, June 2nd), India (lower house election, April June 4th voting, June 4th counting), and other countries. The outcome of these elections, particularly in South Korea where the opposition party secured a majority, underscores the impact of economic policies and rising prices on voter dissatisfaction and election results.
Starting this month, major advanced countries such as the European Union (European Parliament elections, June 6-9), the United Kingdom (House of Commons elections, July 4), and the United States (presidential and House of Lords elections, November 5) are also about to hold national elections. According to opinion polls, regime change is possible in both the UK and the US, and the current regime is facing a crisis of trust. Under normal circumstances, avoiding economic recession and maintaining economic growth will become a driving force for the ruling party. However, in the current situation, due to distribution issues such as reduced real income caused by rising prices and widening economic disparities, many voters (especially low-income groups) benefit less, so past experiences may not be applicable.
The symbol of this situation is the trend of the hardship index (the sum of the unemployment rate and annual inflation rate), which indicates the degree of national economic distress. The UK reached a high of over 18% in 2022, the highest level since 2000. In the peak period of 2022 in the United States, they have also exceeded 12%. In addition to the sharp rise in the unemployment rate caused by the urban blockade after the outbreak of COVID-19, the country also reached the highest level since 2000 since the previous observation data after the financial crisis from 2009 to 2011. Unlike at that time, the sharp increase in the suffering index was not caused by unemployment rates but by the rate of price increases. In recent years, the UK and the US have seen low and stable unemployment rates, but high inflation rates have increased the severity of national economic difficulties. This situation indicates that rather than creating employment, it is more about suppressing inflation, which has become a controversial focus of monetary policy. It suggests that avoiding economic recession and maintaining jobs may not necessarily benefit the ruling party. The suffering index in both the UK and the US is showing a downward trend with the decline of inflation. However, data such as the consumer confidence index shows that household concerns about inflation are still deeply rooted. Before election day, the level of dissatisfaction among voters with rising prices and whether inflation suppression can make much progress may become factors that affect the election results.
■ In the United States and the United Kingdom, high inflation has increased the index of suffering, and economic growth poses a significant challenge to the ruling party.
2024 is a pivotal year as many significant countries are preparing for national elections. Notably, voting has already taken place in Taiwan (presidential election, January 13th), Finland (presidential election, January 28th first round voting, February 11th runoff), Russia (presidential election, March 15-17), South Korea (parliamentary election, April 10th), Mexico (presidential election, June 2nd), India (lower house election, April June 4th voting, June 4th counting), and other countries. The outcome of these elections, particularly in South Korea where the opposition party secured a majority, underscores the impact of economic policies and rising prices on voter dissatisfaction and election results.
Starting this month, major advanced countries such as the European Union (European Parliament elections, June 6-9), the United Kingdom (House of Commons elections, July 4), and the United States (presidential and House of Lords elections, November 5) are also about to hold national elections. According to opinion polls, regime change is possible in both the UK and the US, and the current regime is facing a crisis of trust. Under normal circumstances, avoiding economic recession and maintaining economic growth will become a driving force for the ruling party. However, in the current situation, due to distribution issues such as reduced real income caused by rising prices and widening economic disparities, many voters (especially low-income groups) benefit less, so past experiences may not be applicable.
The symbol of this situation is the trend of the hardship index (the sum of the unemployment rate and annual inflation rate), which indicates the degree of national economic distress. The UK reached a high of over 18% in 2022, the highest level since 2000. In the peak period of 2022 in the United States, they have also exceeded 12%. In addition to the sharp rise in the unemployment rate caused by the urban blockade after the outbreak of COVID-19, the country also reached the highest level since 2000 since the previous observation data after the financial crisis from 2009 to 2011. Unlike at that time, the sharp increase in the suffering index was not caused by unemployment rates but by the rate of price increases. In recent years, the UK and the US have seen low and stable unemployment rates, but high inflation rates have increased the severity of national economic difficulties. This situation indicates that rather than creating employment, it is more about suppressing inflation, which has become a controversial focus of monetary policy. It suggests that avoiding economic recession and maintaining jobs may not necessarily benefit the ruling party. The suffering index in both the UK and the US is showing a downward trend with the decline of inflation. However, data such as the consumer confidence index shows that household concerns about inflation are still deeply rooted. Before election day, the level of dissatisfaction among voters with rising prices and whether inflation suppression can make much progress may become factors that affect the election results.