Exchange rate forecast (USD, EUR)

USD >> The price fluctuations of the US dollar and Japanese US interest rates have attracted much attention. 

EUR >> The euro will continue its heavy upward development. Last week, the US dollar rebounded against the Japanese yen. 

  In digesting the topic of flexibility in the use of long and short interest rate operations (yield curve control) announced by the Bank of Japan on July 28th, the US dollar and yen have remained strong due to the rise in US interest rates. However, except for the lower-than-market expectations of the ISM sentiment index (manufacturing, non-manufacturing) in July, the deterioration of market risk factors starting from the rise in US interest rates was seen as material, and the rise of the US dollar and yen in the second half of the 143-yen period was suppressed. Over the weekend, US employment statistics showed that the number of non-agricultural sector employees fell below market expectations, which was unpleasant, and the increase was scaled back to around 141 yen. This week's Asian time will also be swayed by the trend of Japanese yen interest rates. On the other hand, as a major trend, the background of rising interest rates in the United States will attract attention. In other words, if there are additional interest rate hikes observed in the United States, this is due to the acceleration of growth in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July, which has led to a frank rise in the US dollar and yen response. I would like to take a look at last week's high (143 yen and 89 cents). In contrast, in the case of rising interest rates dominated by supply and demand deterioration, such as the poor bidding of US treasury bonds, if the risk factors in the market worsen, the dollar and yen are vulnerable to pressure. At that time, it is worth noting whether there will be a decline near the low point of 140 yen and 68 cents on July 31st. Last week, the euro saw mixed gains. The benchmark inflation rate of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (HICP) for July remained high. The actual GDP (reported value) from April to June increased on a year-on-year basis. However, driven by concerns about theeconomic deterioration in the region and the appreciation of the US dollar due to the decrease in the confirmed value of the comprehensive PMI in July, the euro-dollar fell to the first half of the Taiwan dollar at $1.09. In the second half of the week, influenced by factors such as the US employment statistics, the US dollar weakened and rebounded to the first half of $1.10. The euro-yen rose from the first half of 155 yen to the middle of 157 yen, but with the decline of the US dollar-yen, the increase narrowed to the first half of 156 yen. The Eurozone investor sentiment index for August, released on the 7th, was negative 24.3 and is expected to decline for the fourth consecutive month. Concerns about the regional economic outlook will continue. In addition, the June Eurozone Consumer Expectations Survey released on the 8th showed that if inflation expectations start to decline from last month, the observation of additional interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) will further dissipate, and the pressure on the euro will continue. In the second half of a week, the trend of the US dollar, which accepts US price indicators, will be shaken off. However, the US dollar will weaken in the downward range of the weekly balance sheet benchmark line ($1.0894), and against the yen, even if the Bank of Japan's loose stance continues to support it, it will restrain its rise near the high of July 24th (157 yen 78 cents).