European and American economies
2023-10-26
■ US economy: Personal consumption continues to remain stable
■ European economy: Although the economy continues to be sluggish, there are signs of recovery in the future
Retail sales in September (up 0.7% month-on-month) increased for the sixth consecutive month. There has been significant growth in areas such as automobiles, gas stations, takeout, and storeless sales. In calculating actual GDP, the core sales of automatic vehicles, takeout, building materials, and excluding gasoline used for personal consumption (an increase of 0.6%) also significantly exceeded the inflation rate, covering not only certain items with significant fluctuations, but also showing the robustness of personal consumption.
The mining industry production in September (a month-on-month increase of 0.3%) increased for the second consecutive month. Commercial equipment has decreased for three months, while durable consumer goods, defense, building materials, and other fields have experienced significant growth. The equipment utilization rate (79.7%) has also remained at a high level, and the continued existence of high production capacity has been confirmed.
The euro zone's current account surplus (27.7 billion euros) increased for the second consecutive month in August. The first income item (showing interest and dividends on external loans and debts) has been in deficit for 5 consecutive months, but the fiscal revenue and expenditure have achieved a significant surplus since January 2021, which has played a driving role in expanding the current account surplus.
The German ZEW economic expectations index for October (-1.1, an increase of 10.3 percentage points from the previous month) rose for the third consecutive month. However, the current situation index (-79.9) has decreased for the sixth consecutive month and remains at an extremely low level, which is basically equivalent to the post-pandemic level in 2020. Despite the sustained economic downturn, signs of future recovery are beginning to emerge.
■ European economy: Although the economy continues to be sluggish, there are signs of recovery in the future
Retail sales in September (up 0.7% month-on-month) increased for the sixth consecutive month. There has been significant growth in areas such as automobiles, gas stations, takeout, and storeless sales. In calculating actual GDP, the core sales of automatic vehicles, takeout, building materials, and excluding gasoline used for personal consumption (an increase of 0.6%) also significantly exceeded the inflation rate, covering not only certain items with significant fluctuations, but also showing the robustness of personal consumption.
The mining industry production in September (a month-on-month increase of 0.3%) increased for the second consecutive month. Commercial equipment has decreased for three months, while durable consumer goods, defense, building materials, and other fields have experienced significant growth. The equipment utilization rate (79.7%) has also remained at a high level, and the continued existence of high production capacity has been confirmed.
The euro zone's current account surplus (27.7 billion euros) increased for the second consecutive month in August. The first income item (showing interest and dividends on external loans and debts) has been in deficit for 5 consecutive months, but the fiscal revenue and expenditure have achieved a significant surplus since January 2021, which has played a driving role in expanding the current account surplus.
The German ZEW economic expectations index for October (-1.1, an increase of 10.3 percentage points from the previous month) rose for the third consecutive month. However, the current situation index (-79.9) has decreased for the sixth consecutive month and remains at an extremely low level, which is basically equivalent to the post-pandemic level in 2020. Despite the sustained economic downturn, signs of future recovery are beginning to emerge.