Economic Summary of the United States and Europe
2023-08-11
■The US economy continues to experience a mild softening in service industry activity and employment.
■ The European economy is experiencing a slowdown in inflation, but the pace of service price increases is accelerating.
The ISM sentiment index for July showed that the manufacturing industry (46.4, up 0.4 points from the previous month) has slightly increased in the past three months, while the non-manufacturing industry (52.7, down 1.2 points year-on-year) has declined for the first time in two months. In the manufacturing industry, the trend of production and new orders continuing to be less than 50% has increased since last month, indicating a slowdown in the pace of contraction. In addition, non-manufacturing business activities have seen a decrease in new orders, but the high level of 50 has been significantly exceeded, indicating a strong demand for services.
According to employment statistics in July, the number of non-agricultural sector employees (an increase of 187000 compared to the previous month) increased by less than 200000 for the second consecutive month. Centered around the service sector, although there has been a slight increase in momentum since the month before the downgrade, the trend has slowed down significantly. However, the unemployment rate (3.5%) has decreased, and the average hourly wage (a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%) has continued to increase almost equally in the previous month. This indicates the continued urgency of labor supply and demand.
The real GDP of the Eurozone from April to June (a rapid increase of 0.3% compared to the previous year) became the first growth rate in three quarters, indicating that the economic downturn since the end of last year is recovering. Although Italy has fallen into negative growth, Germany has emerged from negative growth for the first time in three quarters, and France's growth pace has accelerated.
The consumer price index (HICP) of the Eurozone in July, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, slowed down due to a decrease in energy prices. In addition, in addition to energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, core HICP (up 5.5% year-on-year) increased compared to the previous month. From a detailed perspective, the rate of increase in service prices has accelerated for two consecutive months, once again demonstrating the deep-rooted nature of fundamental inflation.
The unemployment rate in the eurozone (6.4%) in June continued to be at its lowest level since the start of the statistics last month when it was lowered. In addition, the unemployment rate of young people under the age of 25 (13.8%) has decreased, reaching the lowest level since the start of statistics in two months. The continuous downward trend of unemployment indicates that there has been no progress in resolving the tension between labor supply and demand.
■ The European economy is experiencing a slowdown in inflation, but the pace of service price increases is accelerating.
The ISM sentiment index for July showed that the manufacturing industry (46.4, up 0.4 points from the previous month) has slightly increased in the past three months, while the non-manufacturing industry (52.7, down 1.2 points year-on-year) has declined for the first time in two months. In the manufacturing industry, the trend of production and new orders continuing to be less than 50% has increased since last month, indicating a slowdown in the pace of contraction. In addition, non-manufacturing business activities have seen a decrease in new orders, but the high level of 50 has been significantly exceeded, indicating a strong demand for services.
According to employment statistics in July, the number of non-agricultural sector employees (an increase of 187000 compared to the previous month) increased by less than 200000 for the second consecutive month. Centered around the service sector, although there has been a slight increase in momentum since the month before the downgrade, the trend has slowed down significantly. However, the unemployment rate (3.5%) has decreased, and the average hourly wage (a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%) has continued to increase almost equally in the previous month. This indicates the continued urgency of labor supply and demand.
The real GDP of the Eurozone from April to June (a rapid increase of 0.3% compared to the previous year) became the first growth rate in three quarters, indicating that the economic downturn since the end of last year is recovering. Although Italy has fallen into negative growth, Germany has emerged from negative growth for the first time in three quarters, and France's growth pace has accelerated.
The consumer price index (HICP) of the Eurozone in July, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, slowed down due to a decrease in energy prices. In addition, in addition to energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, core HICP (up 5.5% year-on-year) increased compared to the previous month. From a detailed perspective, the rate of increase in service prices has accelerated for two consecutive months, once again demonstrating the deep-rooted nature of fundamental inflation.
The unemployment rate in the eurozone (6.4%) in June continued to be at its lowest level since the start of the statistics last month when it was lowered. In addition, the unemployment rate of young people under the age of 25 (13.8%) has decreased, reaching the lowest level since the start of statistics in two months. The continuous downward trend of unemployment indicates that there has been no progress in resolving the tension between labor supply and demand.