DXY: Is the Trend Imminent?

■ Recently, after bottoming out at 95.55, a right shoulder upward trend has formed. Watch whether it finds support around 97.45.  

■ In the coming weeks, whether the 200-day moving average at 98.39 will become a trigger factor also needs to be monitored. 
 
  The US Dollar Index (DXY) bottomed out at 95.55 on January 27th and rose to 97.98 on February 5th before showing signs of resistance. Currently, it is oscillating between the low of 96.49 on February 11th and the high of 98.07 on February 20th. The DXY encountered resistance after reaching a high of 98.07 on February 20th, but the right shoulder upward trend line connecting the previous lows of 95.55 and 96.49 is currently running around 97.45. Whether it can find support at this level and strengthen its upward momentum is a key observation stage. From the high of 99.49 on January 15th to the low of 95.55 on January 27th, the index has broken through the 50% retracement level of 97.52 and touched the 61.8% retracement level of 97.98. The upward momentum remains strong, and further upward movement and a complete recovery to 99.49 cannot be ruled out. 
 
The Takaichi government nominated two scholars considered to be "reflationists", favoring monetary easing and proactive fiscal policies, to the new board members of the Bank of Japan, cooling market expectations for an earlier interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, and accelerating the depreciation of the yen, which also supported the strength of the DXY to some extent. However, US President Trump launched a new tariff policy as an alternative to reciprocal tariffs. US Trade Representative Greer stated that, based on the findings of investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, high tariffs exceeding 10% to 15% may be imposed on some countries, and uncertainty regarding US tariff policy remains. Even if the DXY breaks through the 200-day moving average (200DMA) at 98.39, this moving average still shows a downward trend, similar to that in late January and late November of last year, and the upward momentum may weaken. Whether the 200DMA will become a trigger point for judging the DXY trend is also worth close attention.