Due to supply concerns, WTI may remain stable for crude oil
2023-04-28
■International organizations maintain global crude oil demand forecasts at the same level as last month and lower supply forecasts.
■The supply and demand of crude oil are tightening, and if demand does not decrease, WTI will be supported
International organizations have completed the 2023 world crude oil supply and demand outlook as of April. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its monthly report on the 13th that global crude oil demand would increase by 2.32 million barrels per day over the previous year to 1018.9 million barrels per day, basically the same as the forecast last month but that the credit squeeze may bring pressure to the global economy, which may partially offset the increased demand during the US summer driving season.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced in its monthly report on the 14th that global crude oil demand is expected to increase by 2 million barrels from the previous year to 101.9 million barrels, and is expected to remain at a historical high. Affected by factors such as slower growth, it has been adjusted downwards by approximately 100000 barrels compared to the previous month. On the other hand, crude oil supply decreased by 500000 barrels to 101.1 million barrels compared to last month.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced in its short-term energy outlook for April that global crude oil demand remained almost unchanged at 100.87 million barrels compared to last month's (100.9 million barrels). On the other hand, global crude oil supply is expected to increase by 1.46 million barrels to 101.3 million barrels compared to the previous year, but it is estimated to be revised down by 170000 barrels compared to the previous month.
The forecast changes by international institutions since last month have shown that crude oil demand has remained basically unchanged, while the downward revision of crude oil supply is more evident. The OPEC, composed of OPEC and non member oil producing countries, once again confirmed in October last year that it will maintain a coordinated production reduction of 2 million barrels and announced additional production cuts. Russia has stated that it will continue to reduce production by 500000 barrels from March until the end of the year. The IEA seems to believe that the increase in shale oil production in the United States will not make up for the decrease in production, and the supply and demand situation for crude oil will continue to be tight. Unless the global economic slowdown leads to a decrease in demand, crude oil futures prices (WTI) are expected to remain stable.
■The supply and demand of crude oil are tightening, and if demand does not decrease, WTI will be supported
International organizations have completed the 2023 world crude oil supply and demand outlook as of April. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its monthly report on the 13th that global crude oil demand would increase by 2.32 million barrels per day over the previous year to 1018.9 million barrels per day, basically the same as the forecast last month but that the credit squeeze may bring pressure to the global economy, which may partially offset the increased demand during the US summer driving season.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced in its monthly report on the 14th that global crude oil demand is expected to increase by 2 million barrels from the previous year to 101.9 million barrels, and is expected to remain at a historical high. Affected by factors such as slower growth, it has been adjusted downwards by approximately 100000 barrels compared to the previous month. On the other hand, crude oil supply decreased by 500000 barrels to 101.1 million barrels compared to last month.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced in its short-term energy outlook for April that global crude oil demand remained almost unchanged at 100.87 million barrels compared to last month's (100.9 million barrels). On the other hand, global crude oil supply is expected to increase by 1.46 million barrels to 101.3 million barrels compared to the previous year, but it is estimated to be revised down by 170000 barrels compared to the previous month.
The forecast changes by international institutions since last month have shown that crude oil demand has remained basically unchanged, while the downward revision of crude oil supply is more evident. The OPEC, composed of OPEC and non member oil producing countries, once again confirmed in October last year that it will maintain a coordinated production reduction of 2 million barrels and announced additional production cuts. Russia has stated that it will continue to reduce production by 500000 barrels from March until the end of the year. The IEA seems to believe that the increase in shale oil production in the United States will not make up for the decrease in production, and the supply and demand situation for crude oil will continue to be tight. Unless the global economic slowdown leads to a decrease in demand, crude oil futures prices (WTI) are expected to remain stable.