Deteriorating investor sentiment drives progress in “safe-haven dollar buying.”

■ The VIX and DXY indices broke through 30 and 100, respectively, marking the first time since the implementation of the US tariff policy on "Liberation Day."  
■ Investor anxiety is likely to rise before the prospects for a Middle East ceasefire agreement become clear, and safe-haven dollar buying will continue. 
 
The VIX index, calculated by the Chicago Board Options Exchange based on the implied volatility of options trading with the S&P 500 index as the underlying asset, is considered an indicator of investor anxiety. It is generally believed that when it exceeds 20, market vigilance rises. As the armed conflict in the Middle East intensifies and market concerns about the protracted conflict rise, the index surged above 31 at the close on the 27th and has been trading in a high range, approaching the 35 high reached on March 9th. 

 
Against this backdrop, the US dollar index (DXY) strengthened across the board, rising to 100.614 on the 30th, a new high since May 2025. Since the US-Israel attack on Iran on February 28, the VIX and DXY indices have shown a particularly pronounced upward trend. The simultaneous occurrence of the VIX exceeding 30 and the DXY exceeding 100 is unprecedented since April 2, 2025, when US President Trump imposed a 10% basic and additional tariff on global imports under the guise of "Liberation Day." At that time, amidst escalating concerns about an economic downturn due to trade frictions, the US president hinted at the possible dismissal of the Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to a decline in market confidence in the dollar, but the DXY remained high. Since April 2, 2025, the correlation coefficient between the VIX and DXY indices has been 0.60, showing a relatively significant positive correlation. 
 
With the Middle East situation becoming increasingly complex, the US is eager to de-escalate the situation, while Israel maintains a hardline stance, leading to a divergence in their intentions. Meanwhile, the Houthis, a pro-Iranian armed group in Yemen, announced an attack on Israel, further escalating the Middle East conflict. Until a clear ceasefire agreement between the United States, Israel, and Iran can be expected, the VIX index is unlikely to fall back to its normal level of 20 in the short term, and the DXY will also remain at a high level. The trend of "buying safe-haven dollars" will continue.