Crude Oil: Unstable Supply Situation
2025-02-19
■ The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) still expect oversupply in 2025
■ The crude oil supply situation is unstable, and WTI may find it difficult to find a clear direction in the short term
International organizations released the latest global crude oil supply and demand forecasts in February. In terms of the growth of global daily crude oil demand in 2025, there are still differences in forecasts due to differences in the views of various organizations on renewable energy transformation, energy efficiency improvement, and rapid electrification. Based on the resilience of the U.S. economy and the growth of demand in Asia, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its forecast to 1.43 million barrels/day (2024: 102.67 million barrels → 2025: 104.10 million barrels), an increase from 1.3 million barrels/day last month. The International Energy Agency (IEA) maintained its forecast at 1.1 million barrels per day (2024: 102.9 million barrels → 2025: 104 million barrels), while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also maintained its forecast at 1.45 million barrels per day (2024: 103.75 million barrels → 2025: 105.20 million barrels).
In terms of the average daily growth of global crude oil supply in 2025, the EIA raised it to 1.8 million barrels per day (2024: 102.80 million barrels → 2025: 104.60 million barrels), while the IEA lowered it to 1.6 million barrels per day (2024: 102.9 million barrels → 2025: 104.50 million barrels). Both the EIA and the IEA predict that the global crude oil market will be oversupplied in 2025, and WTI crude oil futures prices may face downward pressure.
We still need to pay close attention to the dynamics of the supply side in the future. Under the influence of the tariff policy changes of the Trump administration in the United States, the United States announced that it had reached an agreement with Russia and would launch ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on the 12th. The market believes that this may weaken the effect of the new round of comprehensive sanctions imposed by the Biden administration on the Russian oil industry in January, thereby exerting downward pressure on WTI. On the other hand, although President Trump stated at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in January that he would ask OPEC to lower oil prices, OPEC+ decided at the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting held on the 3rd to maintain the current policy, that is, to continue to implement joint production cuts before the end of 2026 and gradually reduce voluntary production cuts from April. OPEC+ rejected Trump's request, which cooled the market's expectations for loose supply and demand of crude oil and supported WTI.
In addition, factors such as the trend of increasing shale oil production in the United States and the possible impact of tariffs on Canada on the country's crude oil supply are expected to have an impact on the global crude oil market. Therefore, WTI may still find it difficult to find a clear direction in the short term.
■ The crude oil supply situation is unstable, and WTI may find it difficult to find a clear direction in the short term
International organizations released the latest global crude oil supply and demand forecasts in February. In terms of the growth of global daily crude oil demand in 2025, there are still differences in forecasts due to differences in the views of various organizations on renewable energy transformation, energy efficiency improvement, and rapid electrification. Based on the resilience of the U.S. economy and the growth of demand in Asia, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its forecast to 1.43 million barrels/day (2024: 102.67 million barrels → 2025: 104.10 million barrels), an increase from 1.3 million barrels/day last month. The International Energy Agency (IEA) maintained its forecast at 1.1 million barrels per day (2024: 102.9 million barrels → 2025: 104 million barrels), while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also maintained its forecast at 1.45 million barrels per day (2024: 103.75 million barrels → 2025: 105.20 million barrels).
In terms of the average daily growth of global crude oil supply in 2025, the EIA raised it to 1.8 million barrels per day (2024: 102.80 million barrels → 2025: 104.60 million barrels), while the IEA lowered it to 1.6 million barrels per day (2024: 102.9 million barrels → 2025: 104.50 million barrels). Both the EIA and the IEA predict that the global crude oil market will be oversupplied in 2025, and WTI crude oil futures prices may face downward pressure.
We still need to pay close attention to the dynamics of the supply side in the future. Under the influence of the tariff policy changes of the Trump administration in the United States, the United States announced that it had reached an agreement with Russia and would launch ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on the 12th. The market believes that this may weaken the effect of the new round of comprehensive sanctions imposed by the Biden administration on the Russian oil industry in January, thereby exerting downward pressure on WTI. On the other hand, although President Trump stated at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in January that he would ask OPEC to lower oil prices, OPEC+ decided at the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting held on the 3rd to maintain the current policy, that is, to continue to implement joint production cuts before the end of 2026 and gradually reduce voluntary production cuts from April. OPEC+ rejected Trump's request, which cooled the market's expectations for loose supply and demand of crude oil and supported WTI.
In addition, factors such as the trend of increasing shale oil production in the United States and the possible impact of tariffs on Canada on the country's crude oil supply are expected to have an impact on the global crude oil market. Therefore, WTI may still find it difficult to find a clear direction in the short term.