Crude Oil: The likelihood of sustained high oil prices is increasing.

■ Amidst heightened tensions in the Middle East, global crude oil supply forecasts have been significantly lowered.  

■ The EIA believes it faces its biggest threat in history, and the likelihood of persistently high oil prices is increasing. 
 
Regarding global crude oil demand growth (daily average) in 2026, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its forecast of an increase of 1.38 million barrels (2025: 105.15 million barrels → 2026: 106.53 million barrels), largely consistent with last month's forecast. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) slightly increased its forecast to 1.23 million barrels (2025: 103.94 million barrels → 2026: 105.17 million barrels), a slight increase from last month's (an increase of 1.2 million barrels); while the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast from 1 million barrels last month to 0.7 million barrels (2025: 104.1 million barrels → 2026: 104.8 million barrels). The IEA pointed out that the downward revision was due to rising oil prices, flight cancellations, and increased economic uncertainty stemming from the conflict with Iran since the end of February. 
 
The growth rate of global crude oil supply (daily average) in 2026 has been lowered. The EIA reduced its increase from 1.56 million barrels last month to 730,000 barrels (2025: 106.31 million barrels → 2026: 107.04 million barrels), while the IEA also lowered its increase from 2.4 million barrels to 1.1 million barrels (2025: 106.1 million barrels → 2026: 107.2 million barrels). Accordingly, the supply surplus in 2026 has significantly decreased: the IEA from 3.7 million barrels to 2.4 million barrels, and the EIA from 3.06 million barrels to 1.87 million barrels. Furthermore, a survey released by the Dallas Fed on the 25th stated that, given the uncertain outlook in the Middle East, US oil companies remain cautious about increasing production; therefore, increased US production is unlikely to effectively alleviate the supply-demand tension. 
 
The IEA analysis states that due to the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and production cuts caused by attacks on oil facilities in Middle Eastern countries, oil production in the Gulf Coast has decreased by approximately 10 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 10% of global consumption, and considers global energy security to be facing its greatest threat in history. IEA member states have agreed to coordinate the release of a record 400 million barrels of oil reserves, and the IEA has also stated its readiness to further coordinate releases, but points out that this cannot be a fundamental solution until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Significant differences remain between the ceasefire conditions proposed by the US and Iran, with no signs of compromise yet. The US government has stated it will postpone the attack on Iranian power plants until April 6th, but if ceasefire negotiations, including those involving Israel, fail to progress and military action escalates again, WTI crude oil futures prices could rise sharply. Even if the Strait of Hormuz eventually reopens and shipping capacity improves, oil supply capacity in the widely attacked Gulf Coast countries is unlikely to recover in the short term. Therefore, it can be argued that the possibility of oil prices remaining high for an extended period is increasing.