Crude Oil: Supply glut widens further, reaching a record high.

■ Market speculation may lead to tighter crude oil supply and demand due to economic sanctions against major Russian oil companies.  

■ The oversupply has further expanded to its largest scale in history, and the situation where WTI struggles to gain upward momentum will continue. 
 
 
International institutions have released their global crude oil supply and demand forecasts in November. Regarding the increase in global daily crude oil demand in 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) slightly lowered its forecast from 1.08 million barrels per day in the previous month to 1.05 million barrels per day (2024: 103.09 million barrels → 2025: 104.14 million barrels). The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its forecast from the previous month, expecting an increase of 1.3 million barrels (2024: 103.84 million barrels → 2025: 105.14 million barrels). On the other hand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) slightly raised its forecast from 700,000 barrels per day in the previous month to 790,000 barrels per day (2024: 103.1 million barrels → 2025: 103.89 million barrels). The IEA noted that demand growth remains low compared to historical levels, while the impact of US tariffs and economic sanctions against Russian oil companies remains unclear. 

 
On November 30th, willing OPEC+*¹ member countries held a ministerial meeting and unanimously agreed to reduce the voluntary production cut of 1.66 million barrels per day implemented since October, while maintaining the existing production policy of extending the coordinated production cut of 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2026. Furthermore, they agreed that December crude oil production would remain the same as in October and November, continuing to increase by 137,000 barrels per day, and temporarily halting production increases during the historically loose supply-demand period of January to March. This is seen as a measure taken in response to signs of oversupply; however, Saudi Arabia, facing pressure from both sanctioned Russia and US demands to lower WTI crude oil futures prices, was forced to make a difficult decision. In response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the US Treasury Department added two major Russian oil companies to its sanctions list on October 22nd, and the European Union (EU) unanimously agreed to implement additional sanctions. The sanctions were implemented on November 21, and the IEA cautioned that there is a significant downside risk to Russian crude oil production, which could result in a tightening supply-and-demand situation in the market. 

 
Despite this, the global daily crude oil supply forecast for 2025 has been further revised upwards. The EIA raised its estimate from 2.68 million barrels per day in the previous month to 2.81 million barrels per day (2024: 103.17 million barrels → 2025: 105.98 million barrels), while the IEA also revised its forecast from 3 million barrels per day to 3.1 million barrels per day (2024: 103.1 million barrels → 2025: 106.2 million barrels). Based on the IEA's forecast, the supply surplus is expected to widen from 2.31 million barrels in 2025 to 4.04 million barrels in 2026, reaching a record high. Therefore, WTI is expected to continue to face a market environment where upward pressure is difficult to achieve.