Crude oil: slow demand growth expected to maintain
2024-01-26
■ International institutions maintain their views on slow demand growth
■ The trends of major oil-producing countries are inconsistent, and vigilance against loose supply and demand
As of January, international institutions have released global crude oil supply and demand prospects. Regarding global crude oil demand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicts growth of 2.20% in 2024 (2023: 121 million barrels → 2024: 144 million barrels) and has raised its forecast for 2025 to 1.77% (162 million barrels). The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) has slightly raised its growth forecast for 2024 to 1.38% (2023: 111 million barrels → 2024: 125 million barrels) and predicts a growth of 1.18% (137 million barrels) in 2025. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a growth of 1.28% in 2024 (from 117 million barrels in 2023 to 130 million barrels in 2024). Although they share the same view on slow demand growth, OPEC is relatively optimistic about the increase in demand from emerging countries such as China and India, while the IEA is more cautious about the decline in demand and progress in improving energy efficiency in Europe.
As for global crude oil supply, EIA predicts a growth of 0.60% in 2024 (117 million barrels in 2023 → 123 million barrels in 2024) and a growth of 1.57% in 2025 (139 million barrels). The IEA expects a growth of 1.47% in 2024 (120 million barrels to 135 million barrels in 2023). Although OPEC Plus is composed of OPEC member countries and non-member oil-producing countries, they continue to emphasize the effectiveness of coordinated and autonomous production reduction frameworks, the IEA takes a more positive attitude towards the supply situation in 2024, considering the increased production of non-OPEC countries such as the United States and Brazil. Based on these supply and demand forecasts, EIA predicts that global crude oil supply and demand will slightly exceed in 2024, while IEA believes that it will slightly exceed supply.
When looking at the future global crude oil supply and demand, the demand side will mainly focus on the degree of economic slowdown in Europe and America, as well as the growth rate of emerging countries such as China. In terms of supply, the trends of major oil-producing countries still receive much attention. Although OPEC Plus has strengthened collaboration through a coordinated production reduction framework, the IEA takes into account the increased production in non-OPEC countries such as the United States and Brazil and holds a relatively positive attitude towards the supply situation in 2024. These factors will all affect the future trend of the crude oil market.
■ The trends of major oil-producing countries are inconsistent, and vigilance against loose supply and demand
As of January, international institutions have released global crude oil supply and demand prospects. Regarding global crude oil demand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicts growth of 2.20% in 2024 (2023: 121 million barrels → 2024: 144 million barrels) and has raised its forecast for 2025 to 1.77% (162 million barrels). The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) has slightly raised its growth forecast for 2024 to 1.38% (2023: 111 million barrels → 2024: 125 million barrels) and predicts a growth of 1.18% (137 million barrels) in 2025. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a growth of 1.28% in 2024 (from 117 million barrels in 2023 to 130 million barrels in 2024). Although they share the same view on slow demand growth, OPEC is relatively optimistic about the increase in demand from emerging countries such as China and India, while the IEA is more cautious about the decline in demand and progress in improving energy efficiency in Europe.
As for global crude oil supply, EIA predicts a growth of 0.60% in 2024 (117 million barrels in 2023 → 123 million barrels in 2024) and a growth of 1.57% in 2025 (139 million barrels). The IEA expects a growth of 1.47% in 2024 (120 million barrels to 135 million barrels in 2023). Although OPEC Plus is composed of OPEC member countries and non-member oil-producing countries, they continue to emphasize the effectiveness of coordinated and autonomous production reduction frameworks, the IEA takes a more positive attitude towards the supply situation in 2024, considering the increased production of non-OPEC countries such as the United States and Brazil. Based on these supply and demand forecasts, EIA predicts that global crude oil supply and demand will slightly exceed in 2024, while IEA believes that it will slightly exceed supply.
When looking at the future global crude oil supply and demand, the demand side will mainly focus on the degree of economic slowdown in Europe and America, as well as the growth rate of emerging countries such as China. In terms of supply, the trends of major oil-producing countries still receive much attention. Although OPEC Plus has strengthened collaboration through a coordinated production reduction framework, the IEA takes into account the increased production in non-OPEC countries such as the United States and Brazil and holds a relatively positive attitude towards the supply situation in 2024. These factors will all affect the future trend of the crude oil market.