Crude Oil: Significant Oversupply Expected to Continue into 2027

■ Supply forecasts revised upwards again, maintaining the assessment of a significant supply glut 

■ While the US-Iran nuclear negotiations are attracting significant attention in the short term, WTI crude oil prices are expected to be under pressure given the continued supply glut. 
 
International institutions have released their global crude oil supply and demand forecasts up to February. Regarding the growth of global crude oil demand (daily average) in 2026, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its forecast from last month, expecting an increase of 1.39 million barrels (2025: 105.13 million barrels → 2026: 106.52 million barrels). The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its forecast upwards from last month's increase of 1.13 million barrels to an increase of 1.2 million barrels (2025: 103.59 million barrels → 2026: 104.79 million barrels). On the other hand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast for an increase of 1 million barrels per day from last month to 900,000 barrels per day (2025: 104 million barrels → 2026: 104.9 million barrels per day). The IEA noted that the downward revision was due to slower demand in emerging economies caused by rising WTI crude oil futures prices. 
 
The growth forecast for global crude oil supply (daily average) in 2026 was revised upward again. The EIA revised its forecast for an increase of 1.56 million barrels per day from last month's 1.36 million barrels per day (2025: 106.29 million barrels → 2026: 107.85 million barrels per day). The IEA maintained its high supply forecast, projecting an increase of 2.4 million barrels per day (2025: 106.2 million barrels → 2026: 108.6 million barrels per day). 

 
In 2007, Venezuela nationalized its oil operations. Furthermore, given the declining demand due to medium- to long-term decarbonization trends and the continued slump in WTI crude oil prices, investing in Venezuela, with its long development cycle, carries significant risk. As WTI prices fall and profits tend to decrease, there is disagreement among major US oil companies regarding active investment in Venezuela, with some taking a positive stance and others remaining cautious. Regarding the scale of the supply surplus in 2026, the IEA has expanded its forecast from 3.6 million barrels to 3.7 million barrels, while the EIA has increased its forecast from 2.83 million barrels to 3.06 million barrels, both further expanding from the previous month, maintaining its assessment of a substantial supply surplus. In addition, the EIA has newly predicted a supply surplus of 2.68 million barrels in 2027. Some OPEC+ members held an online meeting on the 1st, reaffirming their policy of temporarily halting production increases from January to March. However, reports indicate that they are considering resuming production increases from April to cope with seasonal increases in crude oil demand during the summer. In the short term, WTI prices may fluctuate more widely due to the development of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations, but given the continued substantial global crude oil supply surplus, the price trend is expected to be under pressure.