Crude Oil: Significant Demand Surplus Expected in 2026

■ Supply forecasts have been significantly lowered, with a substantial demand surplus expected in 2026.  
■ Limited crude oil supply has begun to constrain economic activity in some Asian countries. 
 
According to global crude oil supply and demand forecasts released by international organizations in May, the situation is as follows: Regarding global crude oil demand (daily average) in 2026, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecasts an increase of 1.17 million barrels year-on-year (2025: 105.16 million barrels → 2026: 106.33 million barrels), a downward revision from the previous month's increase of 1.37 million barrels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts an increase of 180,000 barrels year-on-year (2025: 103.97 million barrels → 2026: 104.15 million barrels), while the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a decrease of 340,000 barrels year-on-year (2025: 104.34 million barrels → 2026: 104 million barrels), both lower than the previous month's forecasts (EIA: increase of 590,000 barrels, IEA: decrease of 80,000 barrels). The IEA maintains its view that supply disruptions and high oil prices will damage some demand, and expects the decline in demand to be greater. 
 
Global crude oil supply (daily) for 2026 has also been revised downwards. The EIA projects a decrease of 4.75 million barrels year-on-year (2025: 116.35 million barrels → 2026: 111.60 million barrels), a further downward revision from the previous month's decrease of 2.08 million barrels; the IEA projects a decrease of 3.9 million barrels (2025: 116.10 million barrels → 2026: 112.20 million barrels), a further downward revision from the previous month's decrease of 1.5 million barrels. Consequently, the IEA projects a demand surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day, while the EIA projects 2.55 million barrels per day. The IEA points out that although production in the US and Brazil has reached record highs, it is still insufficient to offset the decline in production from Gulf oil-producing countries fully. Some OPEC+ members have agreed to continue increasing production in June, but since actual production in March only reached about 80% of the production ceiling, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, the decision to increase production cannot immediately translate into increased output. The withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has reduced its share of global crude oil supply to about 45%, the lowest level since OPEC+ was established in 2016, but it still demonstrates OPEC+'s continued influence on global crude oil supply. 

 
The IEA expects the military conflict in the Middle East to end in early June, and crude oil supply and demand to gradually recover in the second half of the year, but its forecast is subject to significant uncertainty. Against this backdrop, global oil inventories are declining at a record pace, issuing warnings. The impact of insufficient oil supply has spread to some Asian countries, triggering power rationing, encouraging working from home, and planned power outages, resulting in a slowdown in economic activity. On the other hand, as of the 16th, Japan's oil reserves stood at 205 days' supply, although the rate of decline has slowed due to increased purchases of crude oil alternatives that do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz. While signs of a slowdown in economic activity are not yet apparent in developed countries such as Japan and the West, the market remains highly vigilant about the risk of a potential slowdown in economic growth, as the United States and Iran have failed to find a compromise on the issue of nuclear development.