British: MPC prepares economic indicators
2022-12-07
■ The November PMI has started to lower levels since January
■ British central bank slows interest rates, but tightening stance continues
In November, S & P global / CIPS announced a total PMI (revised value) of 48.2 and a low level since January 2021, when England introduced a blockade across the country due to a new type of coronavirus infection. The manufacturing PMI said it had continued to cut 40.0 and 50.0 for a four month period of continuous recession, and China, Britain and the European Union (EU) fell short of orders for export orders, and employment declined for two consecutive months. On the other hand, the service industry PMI (44.8) has received 48.8 per cent of the cost of living, Ukraine war, fiscal austerity, and political uncertainty. In the service industry, there was also an investigation that it was worried about the rise in cost and the decrease in operating profit rate, and that it did not freeze the adoption and return the person leaving the job. The unemployment rate will rise to 3.6 percent in the July September quarter.
In the week starting December 12, the announcement of important economic indicators such as GDP and industrial production in October, employment statistics in October and October, and consumer price index in November, etc., was pushed. The British Industrial Federation (CBI) said on Friday that the recession would be prolonged by the end of 2023 due to the fall in private consumption and business fixed investment. Some members of the MPC show a cautious stance to boost interest rates if Britain falls into a serious recession and needs a cut in 2023. However, the rise in the consumer price index (CPI) in October has risen 11.1 percent from the previous year and the highest level for the first time in 41 years, and the Bank of Japan (BOE) advances in the Monetary Policy Committee on the 15th to reduce the interest rate to 50 BPS from November (75bps). Even if the pace of interest rates slowed, the final reach of policy interest rates is expected to be 3.50-4.75% from the current 3.00% to the year 2023. Based on the next MPC held on February 2, 2023, the new guideline related to the policy will be shown.