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April-June financial report preview for European stocks

2023-07-24

■April-June financial reports of major European companies are expected to cut production and cut interest rates.
■The stock price is at a low level, but it is difficult to expect the performance to improve, whether it is difficult to strengthen the appreciation momentum of European stocks.

The April-June financial report announcement of major European companies has officially started. According to the financial information company (as of the 18th), 370 companies in the Europe 600 index are expected to report quarterly sales in April-June, after the January-March period (up 1.1% year-on-year) is expected to decline by 6.2%. Energy saw large declines in all 10 sectors (down 29.2% year-on-year), public benefits (down 28.8% year-on-year), materials (down 13.7% year-on-year), real estate (down 12.4% year-on-year), and six sectors including general consumer goods (up 10.7% year-on-year and capital goods (up 7.3% year-on-year), but overall results are not expected.
In addition, it is expected that the 332 companies that announced quarterly earnings per share (EPS) will drop by 9.2% year-on-year, and the progress will be made in mid-May (down 3.7% year-on-year). Four divisions including technology (up 43.5% year-on-year) and finance (17.8% growth) are increasing in efficiency. On the other hand, six departments including materials (down 54.1% year-on-year) and energy (down 50.1% year-on-year) are expected to decrease. In addition, the impact of interest rate cuts in the energy sector has a great impact, except for the same sector with an increase of 3.9%, and the downward revision progressed in early June (with an increase of 6.0%). However, the tone of the gain is expected to be maintained.
The expected return on stock price (PER, one year ahead) of the index is 12.4 times, which is stable at 12 times, which is judged to be slightly depreciated this year. If the European Central Bank (ECB) stops raising interest rates and the observation strengthens, it is possible to advance the correction of relatively depreciating. The index's expected EPS growth rate for the coming year was 3.8% on the 18th, lower than that of the United States (S&P500, 7.6%) and Japan (TOPIX, 9.4%). The tone of China's economic recovery has strengthened, and the improvement of the performance prospects of European companies has not progressed. It is difficult to increase the momentum of appreciation of European stocks.

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